Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,029$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(6.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{359,498.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(359,498.8\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,881$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(88 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,667.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 88.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,667.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,034$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $322,710$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{338,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 81.1)}}\) (asimptote \(338,116.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,682$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(489 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,545.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14,545.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $96,876$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,839,850$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,553,916.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,553,916.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $71,469$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,729.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 81.2)}}\) (asimptote \(79,729.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $524,293$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,209$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(8.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,080.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 64.8)}}\) (asimptote \(63,080.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,031$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(536 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,648.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 63.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,648.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,071$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,200$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(476 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,769.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 108.1)}}\) (asimptote \(74,769.3\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,754$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,481.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,481.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,113$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,776$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{449,876.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 135.3)}}\) (asimptote \(449,876.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,202$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(60.2 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{704,445.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 225.8)}}\) (asimptote \(704,445.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,774$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,509$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{377,759.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 139.3)}}\) (asimptote \(377,759.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,810$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(68.4 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,638.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,638.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,291$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $741$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{896.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(896.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(0.0963 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 84.8)}}\) (asimptote \(20.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $228$ on 2020-07-11
